A Conservative meltdown plus favourable opinion polling could help Ed Davey’s party chart a path to second place
Live-updating state of the parties polling ahead of the general election on July 4
Thursday evening poll shows Nigel Farage ahead of Tories
Significant potential swings, tactical voting and undecided voters may all play havoc with forecasting models
Use our model to estimate the result in every constituency using the latest polls or what you think the result will be
The rights of the terminally ill to choose a better death need careful consideration
Conservatives could help matters by ending public squabbles and rallying around its leader
FT polling analysis shows there is almost no way for Conservative party to remain in power
Examples from around the world show that voters are not predictable
One-dimensional survey questions foster one-dimensional debate
PM wants to show willingness to confront tough decisions, but his announcements are so far unhelpful to his falling ratings
Past attempts at temperature taking in constituencies shows challenge of getting a representative sample
Sunak well placed to win over a large bloc of floating voters despite Starmer’s substantial poll lead, survey suggests
Polling suggests there is little appetite for PM’s policies to improve economic growth
Labour needs a way to turn indecision among 2019 Tory voters into a positive choice to vote for the alternative
A recent Ipsos MORI/Economist poll on Covid restrictions was redone along the lines of our suggestions and the results are starkly different.
Plenty of people have been buying into their success story but research points to risk for investors
Five years on from referendum, 4 out of 5 Britons surveyed say they would still vote same way
The FT has updated its analysis of opinion polls ahead of Scottish and Welsh votes
Use the FT’s tool to see whether Alba will help or hinder pro-independence parties
Poll reveals less than a quarter of people think UK will exist in current form a decade from now
Nationalist colleagues fear SNP’s chances of winning a majority in May elections could be damaged
After Joe Biden’s narrower-than-expected victory in some key states forecasters face a harsh reckoning
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